Global coffee harvest 2025: record production expected

Positive Outlook for the 2025 Coffee Harvest

After years of drought, failed blooms, and logistical issues, there’s finally good news. According to the USDA, a record harvest of 174.86 million 60-kg bags of coffee is expected in 2025 — a 4% increase from 2024.

Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer — will contribute over 66.4 million bags, thanks in part to a strong Robusta harvest in Espírito Santo.

When Will We Know if It’s Really a Great Year?

The quality of the coffee will only be known later in the year, once processing and taste tests are completed. Here's how the process looks:

• May – August: Harvest time in Brazil. First visual checks on the berries and weather.
• August – September: Processing and drying. First cupping starts.
• September – November: Analysis of taste, aroma, and acidity. Then we’ll know if it’s a top year.
  
  

Global Shortages Still Not Resolved

Despite the positive harvest outlook, the global coffee supply is still not at an adequate level. Years of shortages, rising costs, and logistical delays have left deep marks.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), it’s expected to take at least three more years before the coffee market is back in balance.

Meanwhile, global demand for coffee continues to grow — in Europe, as well as emerging markets like China, South Korea, and Africa.

More Coffee Doesn’t Always Mean Better Coffee

A large harvest doesn’t automatically mean all coffee is of high quality. Especially in the bulk market, the focus is on volume, not flavor or traceability.

Specialty coffee requires selective picking, careful processing, and strict quality control — something we at De Koffiebaron always prioritize.

What Will Happen to Coffee Prices?

A larger harvest could lead to a slight stabilization of coffee prices. However, what you pay in the Netherlands depends on more than just the harvest: transportation costs, inflation, exchange rates, and political developments all play a role.

Our expectation? No sharp price drops, but hopefully fewer erratic price fluctuations.

Future-Proof Coffee: Innovation and Sustainability

Farmers and researchers are investing in stronger coffee varieties and more sustainable farming practices. In Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia, new climate-resistant coffee varieties are being developed that are better equipped to handle climate change.

In Vietnam, steps have also been taken toward sustainable coffee cultivation with a robust Robusta variant (source: Vinacafe). Organizations like the Rainforest Alliance are supporting farmers with shade trees, regenerative agriculture, and water management.